Principles and approaches applied for foodborne microbial risk assessment: a scoping review of concepts, limitations and future directions

Microbiological risk assessment (MRA) is a cornerstone of food safety governance, enabling sound science to set food safety standards, guidelines, and recommendations, that aim to ensure consumer protection and facilitate international trade. This scoping review summarizes recent developments, limitations, and future directions in foodborne MRA, based on literature published between 2013 and 2023. From 5909 records retrieved via four databases, 244 publications were screened, and 44 met the inclusion criteria. These publications focused on concepts and methods for assessing microbiological hazards in food, such as current challenges and limitations, or suggested new elements to be incorporated into risk assessment. Most studies referred to the Codex Alimentarius framework and addressed bacterial hazards in general food contexts. Stakeholder attention was mainly centered on government and industry, whereas consumer and societal perspectives were rarely represented. Additionally, challenges, such as data limitations, microbial adaptability, and food-matrix specificity, were recurrently highlighted. Several studies suggested updating the existing frameworks due to methodological limitations, lack of interdisciplinary integration, and gaps in stakeholder knowledge. In line with this, a shift toward the incorporation of OMICs data, harmonized methods, and — less frequently — artificial intelligence, was observed as potential tools to improve model accuracy, albeit with acknowledged risks of added complexity and uncertainty. This review highlights the importance of using and, where appropriate, adaptively extending the existing MRA framework to integrate emerging technologies and broader stakeholder perspectives. Such adaptation may support better navigation of complex food-system risks, provided that the scientific integrity and clear separation of risk assessment from risk management and communication are maintained.

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Universität Zürich